jem
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Post by jem on Aug 20, 2021 17:26:57 GMT
am I right is thinking that the indicial cost of an ev is about 10000 pounds more than the equelevant ice car??? So you are making no saving at all? and parhaps very soon electricity will be so expensive that it will be 14 p per mile in an ev.
Jem
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Post by Roger on Aug 20, 2021 19:57:44 GMT
am I right is thinking that the indicial cost of an ev is about 10000 pounds more than the equelevant ice car??? So you are making no saving at all? and parhaps very soon electricity will be so expensive that it will be 14 p per mile in an ev. Jem It's hard to know what to compare really. If you took say a BMW 3 series, that starts at £32,595 whereas a Tesla Model 3 starts at £40,990. So there is certainly a difference, but not a massive one. However, you have the best Cruise Control in the world with Tesla, and the performance is significantly greater too. Looking at the number of people who are buying the Tesla in preference to the BMW tells us that people don't see them as equivalent. They're prepared to pay more for today's car, not yesterday's. At the moment, the price of Teslas is artificially high due to demand exceeding supply. It's still early days for EVs, and Tesla is aiming at producing an affordable car for $25,000. It's the cost of the battery that currently makes them more expensive. Without that, they would be much cheaper than ICE cars. Fortunately, Tesla bought Maxwell Technologies to get their Dry Electrode production process which delivers huge savings due to the simplification and size of the production plant. That's going to make a huge difference in the cost of the battery, bringing the overall cost of the Car below that of an ICE one. That's going to be the case in about 12 months. Things are moving at an astonishing pace, it's hard to keep up with it.
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Post by Roger on Aug 20, 2021 20:01:07 GMT
For anyone interested in Tesla and how they are developing their FSD (Full Self Driving) system, this is a fascinating presentation. If this is all gobbledegook to you, here's a primer that gives a basic understanding of the fundamental ideas.
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Post by Jo on Aug 21, 2021 5:41:21 GMT
The way I am looking at this is that the battery on an EV is the equivalent of the engine on an ICE vehicle and cost wise, including the garage work to do the replacement the costs are very similar. A Diesel engine is good for over 250K miles, a petrol engine for possibly half that and the battery on an EV is currently good for 8 years.
So if we look to wear out the engines/batteries in 8 years: for the Diesel you need to do 31K miles and Petrol engine 16K miles both of which are much higher than the average driver's annual millage. I am not sure about number of charges the car traction batteries can take but I will assume it can be charged everyday for those 8 years on a slow charge without any degradation of the power capacity so that is 3000 times, 12 hours of charging on a 13A supply = 144 miles distance per charge, providing a potential 50K miles per year.
On the other end of the spectrum ICE wear out faster if they are used for short distances with lots of stop/starting like when they are used on the school run. So what is needed is practical EVs suitable for town runs like shopping/school runs which are in the price range of your average family so they need to be under £20K (I am assuming these families will live in a suitable property that will enable them to charge the EV every night rather than having to use remote fast chargers) .
Jo
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Post by Roger on Aug 21, 2021 8:04:21 GMT
The way I am looking at this is that the battery on an EV is the equivalent of the engine on an ICE vehicle and cost wise, including the garage work to do the replacement the costs are very similar. A Diesel engine is good for over 250K miles, a petrol engine for possibly half that and the battery on an EV is currently good for 8 years. So if we look to wear out the engines/batteries in 8 years: for the Diesel you need to do 31K miles and Petrol engine 16K miles both of which are much higher than the average driver's annual millage. I am not sure about number of charges the car traction batteries can take but I will assume it can be charged everyday for those 8 years on a slow charge without any degradation of the power capacity so that is 3000 times, 12 hours of charging on a 13A supply = 144 miles distance per charge, providing a potential 50K miles per year. On the other end of the spectrum ICE wear out faster if they are used for short distances with lots of stop/starting like when they are used on the school run. So what is needed is practical EVs suitable for town runs like shopping/school runs which are in the price range of your average family so they need to be under £20K (I am assuming these families will live in a suitable property that will enable them to charge the EV every night rather than having to use remote fast chargers) . Jo I don't know where you're getting the 8 year value from, what is your source? Just because a company warrants a battery for 8 years doesn't mean its life is 8 years. If you look at this in depth article from 2020, You'll find the following statement... "After selling more than 1 million electric cars, Tesla's battery degradation data shows that vehicles with mileage between 150,000-200,000 miles (241,000-322,000 km), on average, still have more than 85% of initial battery capacity (the battery degradation is below 15%)" That's a huge sample size, and according to AutoTrader, ICE vehicles are averaging 12 years and 200,000 miles. That's probably going to be the peak, because the sales of Diesel cars have massively reduced over recent years. Either way, the average Tesla EV already achieves the average mileage for ICE cars while retaining at least 85% of their capacity. That's not the end of their life however. In reality, people don't replace ICE engines like they used to do, it's just not economic. The same applies to batteries, which is why Tesla are driving up the battery life towards 1 million miles. Since the battery is the most likely reason why an EV ultimately gets scrapped, (just like an ICE engine), it makes sense to do that. Car and driver magazine say this... "Standard cars in this day and age are expected to keep running up to 200,000 miles, while cars with electric engines are expected to last for up to 300,000 miles." You're absolutely right about the way that usage can significantly affect a vehicle's life. However, you need to look at averages rather than at the fringes to get a realistic picture. Most cars spend their lives idle, and that really suits EVs. Companies like Tesla deliberately avoid fully charging and discharging their batteries, and that extends their life significantly. The same goes for the careful management of temperature, something that Nissan failed to do in their Leaf.
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uuu
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Post by uuu on Aug 21, 2021 8:40:43 GMT
Forgetting the rarefied atmosphere of the Tesla, a new mild hybrid (i.e. petrol) Fiat 500 is from £13.400. The full electric version is from £23.400. OK the electric one is a whole new body. Vauxhall Corsa petrol about £17,000, electric about £27,000. So your £10,000 figure seems to be supported.
I've not run a car up to 250,000 miles. Mostly I buy second hand at about 20,000 (or occasionally new) and sell at between 60,000 and 80,000. So I've not needed a new engine (even a new clutch is rare), and am not expecting to need a new battery. My son runs a higher mileage car, but it's worth next to nothing at about 150,000, so if something costly goes bang (which could be as simple as a power steering pump), it's likely to go. I've not looked round a scrap yard, but I'd expect a good proportion of the cars with only 100,000 or less, and hardly any up at 200,000.
Wilf
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 10:09:06 GMT
Not all cars are equal, according to Porsche, 70% of all cars ever made are still on the road today. They do a lot to support their range no matter how old. Their Porsche classic service/support is perhaps the best in the world, parts are easily available and not just service parts, for example I recently bought a complete set of rubber seals for the bodywork. Even today with the climate issues they have invested a fortune in a bio fuel to keep those older cars on the road. This fuel is real and currently being used/tested on the race track in a number of racing series. 200k miles is nothing for a Porsche as I'm sure I have stated before. Back in the 80's Porsche drove a 944 over a year covering 250k miles, it was then stripped and tested for wear. The engine components when mic'd where as new spec, they could easily have been put back into another brand new car on the production line and sold as new. The car was serviced according to the published schedule with new oil and filters, no parts needing replacement, including the clutch.
My own car has covered over 220k and drives like new, just got home from a 340 mile trip with 1/3 of fuel still left in the tank. Yes my engine has been rebuilt but that's not from wear or need, that's from me doubling the power which in itself is tesimony to how over engineered Porsche's are, well certainly those up to the 80's before computer models reduced that level of engineering with better understading of where costs can be reduced for components.
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uuu
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Post by uuu on Aug 21, 2021 11:04:07 GMT
I had a Porsche for a bit - a 944. Automatic! I do hope it's not still on the road, for it was a dreadful thing.
My brother had better luck with his - he had several - he worked for a dealer, so could attest to the high build quality, although you wouldn't call his 928 reliable. The police came round with video of his 911 doing 130 - they hadn't caught it. Except it wasn't his one - he was able to identify it as a different year - someone had copied his number plates onto a similar car.
Wilf
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 11:08:07 GMT
I had a Porsche for a bit - a 944. Automatic! I do hope it's not still on the road, for it was a dreadful thing. My brother had better luck with his - he had several - he worked for a dealer, so could attest to the high build quality, although you wouldn't call his 928 reliable. The police came round with video of his 911 doing 130 - they hadn't caught it. Except it wasn't his one - he was able to identify it as a different year - someone had copied his number plates onto a similar car. Wilf Haha...lucky him....the 928 had electrical issues, everything was electronic and in the very early days of such things. Mechanically as far as I know they are sound. Pete
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Post by Jo on Aug 21, 2021 13:56:17 GMT
I don't know where you're getting the 8 year value from, what is your source? Just because a company warrants a battery for 8 years doesn't mean its life is 8 years..... Either way, the average Tesla EV already achieves the average mileage for ICE cars while retaining at least 85% of their capacity. That's not the end of their life however. I am basing it on my friend's Prusa and its battery degradation over time and another second hand EV purchaser who thought they got a bargain when they brought a 7 year old EV to find the actual range achievable by that time 50% of that claimed. But lets put that 50% claim into perspective: my friend brought a brand new EV Focus in March 2021 with a claimed range of 210 miles. His experience is that after 110 miles (unintended range for this car to visit his parents house in order to dispose of their estate) the car is claiming that it only has 30 mile range left. He will not use the AC or Heating as that consumes power almost as fast as the engine. I wouldn't like to spend £28K on a car that I was concerned about turning on the heater or AC as I could get stranded without any power. Battery life depends on how the battery is used and how it is charged - Tesla guarantee 8 years and at that point 70% of original capacity or 100K to 150K miles (depending on model) - other cheaper EV manufacturers are also available and the performance of their electrical package will vary. EV's are a bit like ground/air sourced heat pumps: They will be really good in the future but today the technology is still evolving. You pay your money you take your chances. Jo P.S. I looked at installing a ground sourced heat pump - I have the cash, I have the suitable land to do it but having looked into it the cons out weight the pros so I will not be installing one.
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Post by Roger on Aug 21, 2021 17:25:24 GMT
I don't know where you're getting the 8 year value from, what is your source? Just because a company warrants a battery for 8 years doesn't mean its life is 8 years..... Either way, the average Tesla EV already achieves the average mileage for ICE cars while retaining at least 85% of their capacity. That's not the end of their life however. I am basing it on my friend's Prusa and its battery degradation over time and another second hand EV purchaser who thought they got a bargain when they brought a 7 year old EV to find the actual range achievable by that time 50% of that claimed. But lets put that 50% claim into perspective: my friend brought a brand new EV Focus in March 2021 with a claimed range of 210 miles. His experience is that after 110 miles (unintended range for this car to visit his parents house in order to dispose of their estate) the car is claiming that it only has 30 mile range left. He will not use the AC or Heating as that consumes power almost as fast as the engine. I wouldn't like to spend £28K on a car that I was concerned about turning on the heater or AC as I could get stranded without any power. Battery life depends on how the battery is used and how it is charged - Tesla guarantee 8 years and at that point 70% of original capacity or 100K to 150K miles (depending on model) - other cheaper EV manufacturers are also available and the performance of their electrical package will vary. EV's are a bit like ground/air sourced heat pumps: They will be really good in the future but today the technology is still evolving. You pay your money you take your chances. Jo P.S. I looked at installing a ground sourced heat pump - I have the cash, I have the suitable land to do it but having looked into it the cons out weight the pros so I will not be installing one. In fairness then, I'm pointing you to data about 1 million Tesla vehicles, and you're using a sample of two other makes, neither of which has the experience of Tesla. If the range is that bad, it sounds like it's a warranty issue. You can't judge EVs as a whole category of vehicles based on two experiences with makes that aren't close to the market leader. I agree that some manufacturers have a long way to go before they are as good as they need to be. Tesla only guarantee 8 years and 70% because they know they can easily achieve it. It pays to do your research before you dive in, like with any evolving technology. The problem with legacy car makers is that they had a ponderous rate of development. They know that if they progress too quickly, people will wait until the next model comes out. This is the well known 'Osborne effect'. They also rely heavily on outsourcing much of the Engineering and design, which means they're experts at nothing. Tesla, on the other hand, do everything themselves and iterate at an astonishing pace. This is why they are so far ahead, and will remain so. At the moment, their products are still too expensive for the mass market, but they're soon to change all that. Watch this space!
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uuu
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Post by uuu on Aug 21, 2021 18:06:48 GMT
Time will tell whether the leap I have taken makes economic sense. Meanwhile, I'm a fan of electric cars because they're nice to drive. Mine is soooo smooth and quiet. It reminds me of a V12 Jag I had - gobs of torque and almost silent.
Wilf
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 18:09:28 GMT
To also be fair Roger the motor press say the same thing...EV's lose capacity and power from the first time they are charged. The faster and more often the charge the quicker the battery deteriates ..this is just the normal life cycle of a battery, no mystery to it. I noted your post re Musk's video on auto driving, this looked a new video going by the date? Interesting that he does this within days of the US announcing that it has launched an investigation into the Tesla auto drive system after a number of accidents including a fatality. They will be checking all Tesla's since 2014, it was also interesting tbat Tesla has closed it's PR office meaning no media can get an official comment?
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Post by Roger on Aug 21, 2021 19:36:26 GMT
To also be fair Roger the motor press say the same thing...EV's lose capacity and power from the first time they are charged. The faster and more often the charge the quicker the battery deteriates ..this is just the normal life cycle of a battery, no mystery to it. I noted your post re Musk's video on auto driving, this looked a new video going by the date? Interesting that he does this within days of the US announcing that it has launched an investigation into the Tesla auto drive system after a number of accidents including a fatality. They will be checking all Tesla's since 2014, it was also interesting tbat Tesla has closed it's PR office meaning no media can get an official comment? Everyone says the same, including Tesla, battery capacity declines continuously with age. Same with the way the battery is used. However, the thing that people seem to miss is the rate of decline, which is very slow on average, hence the very long battery life they are experiencing. Like I've mentioned many times before, most cars are only partially discharged and then gently brought back up, usually overnight. This gives them a very easy life, and these cars are experiencing very low battery degradation. Some people are taking things to extremes, here's one who has completed 562,000 miles in his Tesla Model S. You can't do that if your battery capacity collapses like people seem to think. The AI day has been on the calendar way before the investigation into the safety of AutoPilot and FSD. I'm amazed that the number of accidents is only 10 since 2016. Every death is tragic, but you have to bear in mind that Tesla make it crystal clear that YOU are in control. It is your responsibility to supervise the system, just like you do when you use Cruise Control. You can't blame that when you crash into the back of a lorry, and you can't blame other driving assistance tech either. Tesla closed their PR department because they didn't see the point in having one. People make up their own stories about Tesla, they don't care what Tesla has to say. It's just a waste of time and money, just like advertising. Their mission is to make their products so good and compelling that the owners become the sales force. Look at how much the other car makers spend on advertising, it's a money pit. The AI day was aimed squarely at recruiting the best of the World's talent to Tesla, it wasn't for investors or anaylists. If you watch it all of the way through, you'll see that the last hour was mostly very technical questions from the invited audience, not the usual mindless ones you usually get. It's worth looking at the whole presentation, it's absolutely stunning to see the rate of progress and how it's all done. If you don't want to watch the whole thing, here's a cut down version with some of the hightlights. It's clever how they're creating labelled training data for edge cases by using techniques developed for video games, blending them with photorealistic lighting using AI. That way they can simulate situations where there's insufficient training data from the real world. Tesla have no problem with the regulators, they give them all of the data they need, including all the files which amount to a 'black box' for the crashed cars. So far, the ones I've seen to date show that the user did press hard on the accellerator, even though they said it shot off on its own. Even if they conclude that there's something that they want changed in the car, it's only going to be an 'over the air update'. To be honest, since they're getting these regularly anyway, I'd be amazed if they would need to do anything. Tesla are the focus for most of the FUD (Fear Uncertainty Doubt) because they are so prominent and confident. It goes with the territory, it's water off a duck's back. Disinformation, repeated untruths and statistics are the daily press fodder, it makes for easy headlines.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 19:55:31 GMT
The investigation is into the fact that Tesla's auto pilot has problems with flashing lights and semi-rig trailers which it fails to see and then ploughs into them with fatal results, hence the investigation. All batteries degrade, EV manufacturers try to elongate battery life by restricting them from charging to 100% to reduce that degradation, usually taking them to 80 or 85% charge. Hard acceleration also reduces battery life, the faster you drive and the harder you brake the battery degrades quicker, that one egates why you would want an EV supercar. This has always been the way batteries are affected. I don't doubt that battery technology will improve but for me when I buy a car, new or secondhand, I want it to give me the same performance and range in yen years as the day I bought it, no EV is going to do this, now or in the future.
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uuu
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Post by uuu on Aug 21, 2021 20:11:34 GMT
I've not driven a car before now that has advanced driving assistance. I'm still a bit sceptical.
The first thing for me to master is the concept of "one pedal driving". I came across this first on a BMW i3 I tested, and it's also a feature (you don't have to use it) in my new Fiat. The idea is that the car will slow down and come to a stop when you release the throttle. With practice you can drive mostly one that pedal alone, only using the brake for unexpected stopping. This discourages aggressive slow-down and maximises battery regeneration.
The car then holds you at standstill until you want to move off again. At least, that's what's supposed to happen. This seems to be reliable on the flat, or downhill. Sometimes uphill, it somehow fails to catch, and I roll back. Not perfect.
It also takes some getting used to - it's the reverse of the usual automatic behaviour where the car creeps unless you hold the brake. This refuses to move at all unless you press the throttle.
The second one is, so far, useless. It's a lane centring feature. It's supposed to warn you if you drift towards the edge of your lane, with a gentle nudge on the steering. Fine until you're on a narrow single track road, when it gently encourages you into the path of oncoming cars.
The third one is an emergency auto-brake feature. This applies your brakes for you (preceded by a warning) if you're about to hit something. It gets a bit worried if you go for narrow gaps. I've only had it kick in fully once when I raced up to the back of the car in front to clear a space for an oncoming car. I knew I could stop in time, I wasn't overly fussed, when it kicked in to assist. An acquaintance was saved from reversing his Skoda into another car that he'd not seen by a similar system.
So, these are "exceptions to the rule" situations. But it would be easy to drive in environments where there were fewer exceptions, and get lulled into thinking that the car was always going to behave itself.
Wilf
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 20:22:50 GMT
IMHO Wilf the auto brake system is a death trap, I know of a few occasions when it's kicked in when it shouldn't and caused mayhem to vehicles travelling behind. Most dangerous is on fast roads with slip roads, it fails to recognise that it ( your car) is vering off and thus not going to hit the vehicle in front of it that is continuing on the highway. Doing a full emergency stop in such a situation is a death trap waiting to happen. There will always be varibles when driving, something that AI is not capable of dealing with.
Pete
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uuu
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Post by uuu on Aug 21, 2021 20:26:37 GMT
Of course, things would have been perfect, if only I'd bought a Tesla. Waiting to cross the road, it's a bit of a bind, waiting for one to come along, so you can step off the pavement in safety, certain that, even if the driver is asleep, there's no way you'll be hurt.
Wilf
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Post by Deleted on Aug 21, 2021 20:36:15 GMT
Of course, things would have been perfect, if only I'd bought a Tesla. Waiting to cross the road, it's a bit of a bind, waiting for one to come along, so you can step off the pavement in safety, certain that, even if the driver is asleep, there's no way you'll be hurt. Wilf Haha...rather you than me, just make sure you haven't got a blue flashing light on top of your head or it will plough straight threw you without a single thought from its AI...🤣🤣
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Post by RGR 60130 on Aug 21, 2021 20:50:42 GMT
I have two partially sighted friends who describe electric cars as "bloody nightmares" because they can't hear them.
Reg
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