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Post by Roger on Aug 23, 2021 21:00:05 GMT
More junk reporting from people who don't know what they're talking about I'm afraid. It's the usual Elon and Tesla bashing because it's easy and lazy copy that people lap up. Here's what one of the leading researchers on AI had to say about Tesla's AI day. I suspect he knows a good deal more than some hack Sky reporter when it comes to this subject! He's not alone, here's a link to the initial reaction of James Douma, who's another AI expert. You won't understand what a big deal this all is unless you take the time to dive deep into it. There's a very good reason why major car companies are throwing in the towel when it comes to autonomy. The fact is that they don't have the commitment and belief required to make it a reality. This is a very hard problem indeed, and they simply aren't prepared to make the necessary investment. Tesla realised early on that you need truly vast amounts of real world training data to teach the system. That's why they fitted their cars with multiple cameras and neural networks from the very beginning. The cost of doing that was considerable, and for negligible immediate return. That's hundreds of dollar on each car, something tradional car makers would never do. It it won't make a return within a model year, they won't do it. You also have to bear in mind that car companies outsource most of their Engineering and development to third parties. Tesla don't do that. The result is that three generations of Neural Networks in Tesla cars finally can see the light at the end of the tunnel. It will probably be another generation of hardware, and the liberal use of the groundbreaking Dojo training system before true Level 5 autonomy is achieved. Nobody else is putting in enough resources to make this a reality. If anyone else wants in in their cars, they will have to license it from Tesla. As far as I can see, Elon Musk can only be accused of over ambitious targets, he gets there in the end. Contrast that to the paucity of ambition you see elsewhere and it's a breath of fresh air.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2021 21:27:05 GMT
I'm not so sure about that...one electronics professor, I don't recall his credentials but got the fact that he's at the top of his game, said that no company will have robots doing the shopping this side of 10 years. I get the impression that many have little time for the dreamer. As for his auto-drive system, I read an article which I think said there are 5 or 6 levels of auto-drive, Tesla has only managed to reach level 2. As for what he can be accused of, it seems 'plenty' and not just wild claims that failed to materialise. But then Musk has more important things on his mind these days, or at least he should do. Such as his trial for which he took the stand last month for forcing Tesla into iirc an acquisition of a solar panel company costing $2.6 billion dollars propping up said company which happens to be owned by him and two cousins from going bust. That's a serious charge and could finish him as CEO, but then what does he care, he said he hates being CEO of Tesla but does it or it will die.....what a man....clearly totally warped. We shall see how he and his companies fair as a result, personally I won't be losing any sleep over him. You seem to think that I don't read into these things, I do but I do so with an open mind.
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JonL
Elder Statesman
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Post by JonL on Aug 24, 2021 6:43:35 GMT
Moore's law suggests that the rate of advance is accelerating rapidly and will continue to do so.
I could never have predicted the level of automation my home has, or my car. As for what it will be like in five years, the mind boggles
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uuu
Elder Statesman
your message here...
Posts: 2,815
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Post by uuu on Aug 24, 2021 7:15:01 GMT
I'd like a car that drives itself. I do enjoy driving, but on a long trip it can get wearing. And it's nice to be able to look around and see the scenery when someone (something?) else is doing it. It would also be good to drive yourself when all the other cars were auto-driving, knowing that they weren't going to swerve in front, or change lane without signalling.
Once predictive text on phones becomes better, and voice-activated computers become more reliable (they're improving), we'll know we're getting closer.
Wilf
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Post by Roger on Aug 24, 2021 7:57:10 GMT
Here's about as simple a summary of the takeaway points from AI day if you don't want to wade deep into it. If you just take that first piece alone, I think it will be obvious that their team are doing something extraordinary. They show a 3D model created solely from the 8 cameras, in real time, moving the model so you can see what it knows from that alone. When we drive, we have a certain awareness of what's around us, but it's mostly focussed on what's ahead. We have the minimum of information about what's behind or beside us. Contrast that with this 8 camera view, where the whole scene is mapped. There are no blind spots and there's no inattention. Once you know what's in the whole scene, you need to plan your route, based not only on what you want to do, but on what other objects in the scene are doing. They plan out multiple paths based on the most likely behaviour, modifying that moment by moment as the scene develops. Anyway, the summary explains all of this pretty well. The graphics are very compelling in demonstrating the depth of understanding of what's going on. What Elon Musk's detractors fail to realise is that he paints with a very broad brush to create a vision of where he aims to be. He has some of the pieces of the puzzle in place, and knows he has some of the tools to get a good way towards that goal. What he never claims is to know ALL the pieces of the puzzle and exactly HOW it's all going to be done. He adapts and changes his approach when the current one reaches a dead end. You'll never achieve Full Self Driving if you assume that it's an intractable problem from the start. Solutions along the way are not going to cut it in the end, and they're not supposed to. They're just the necessary steps along the path that you have to take to make the journey. Criticising the performance of these misses the point that they ar getting inexorably closer to the final goal, one step at a time. He's not afraid to take on these lofty goals, and that makes him an easy target. It's the easiest thing in the world to stand back, criticise, and point out where things haven't gone to plan. Of course things don't go to plan, the plan is vague and changeable. The goal never changes though, and eventually he usually gets there in the end. Most people don't have the vision to make great things happen.
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Post by simplyloco on Aug 24, 2021 8:14:49 GMT
I post on a motorhome forum where, if I want, I can ignore not just people, but entire threads...
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Post by Roger on Aug 24, 2021 8:27:19 GMT
I post on a motorhome forum where, if I want, I can ignore not just people, but entire threads... I ignore lots of threads anyway if they don't interest me. I don't need tools for something like that, I just don't read them.
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uuu
Elder Statesman
your message here...
Posts: 2,815
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Post by uuu on Aug 24, 2021 10:19:25 GMT
Since I use the "Recently updated threads" feature, which marks "New" against any changes, I can use "Actions" to "Mark-as-read" and "forever" against threads I'm no longer interested in. They still show in the list, but they're never marked as "New",so I pass them by.
Wilf
PS I had marked this thread in that way, until I bought a car, when I jumped back in. Since I usually buy second hand, the features in new cars are not usually relevant to me, much less the tricks that are yet to be released. The thread is (was) about small cars. Why is each model always bigger than its predecessor? Parking spaces are not getting bigger. Roads are not getting wider.
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Post by Jo on Aug 24, 2021 18:57:21 GMT
When we drive, we have a certain awareness of what's around us, but it's mostly focussed on what's ahead. We have the minimum of information about what's behind or beside us. I can tell you are/were not a motorcyclist . Most people are able to conduct a number (around 35) different behaviours without "actively thinking about it", your brain will get on with managing the behaviour and only highlight to you abnormal events. Which reminds me of that famous physiological video with the monkey walking behind a murder scene in which the person was actively conducting the murder in the video but no one noticed the monkey when asked to report on what was in the video - the murder was clearly considered to be the most abnormal event in the video and that is what people remembered. Your bodies ability to conduct distributed real-time behavioural autonomy is amazing: think about what your ankles are doing when you run across a ploughed field... you don't need to tell them to bend this way or that they just do it, they cushion and provide springing just at the right point. Reactive behavioural automatics from static visual images are a relatively easy problem, anticipatory behavioural autonomy (recognising the likely behaviours of those around you and altering your behavioural decision space accordingly) is a lot more challenging. Jo
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Post by Deleted on Aug 24, 2021 19:24:05 GMT
Very true Jo and even today with the worlds most powerful super computers, they aren't even close to the human brain, in fact they are so far behind that they aren't even in the same order of magnitude. We need to consider this when trying to preach that an auto drive car is safer than when driven by a human. As things are today auto driving is so far behind it doesn't even register on the same scale.
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Post by Roger on Aug 24, 2021 19:38:58 GMT
When we drive, we have a certain awareness of what's around us, but it's mostly focussed on what's ahead. We have the minimum of information about what's behind or beside us. I can tell you are/were not a motorcyclist . Most people are able to conduct a number (around 35) different behaviours without "actively thinking about it", your brain will get on with managing the behaviour and only highlight to you abnormal events. Which reminds me of that famous physiological video with the monkey walking behind a murder scene in which the person was actively conducting the murder in the video but no one noticed the monkey when asked to report on what was in the video - the murder was clearly considered to be the most abnormal event in the video and that is what people remembered. Your bodies ability to conduct distributed real-time behavioural autonomy is amazing: think about what your ankles are doing when you run across a ploughed field... you don't need to tell them to bend this way or that they just do it, they cushion and provide springing just at the right point. Reactive behavioural automatics from static visual images are a relatively easy problem, anticipatory behavioural autonomy (recognising the likely behaviours of those around you and altering your behavioural decision space accordingly) is a lot more challenging. Jo Ah, but you're quite wrong about that. I had a BSA Bantam at 16, another at 17, then a Triumph Bonneville, followed by a Suzuki GT750 and finally an 850cc Moto Guzzi Le Mans MKII. I finally gave it up motorcycles for a car at age 34, motorbikes were my sole transport until then. I've ridden over 250,000 miles on motorbikes, and I'm well aware of how you have to be alert to those around you. Sadly, people don't see motorcycles, and it became clear to me that sooner or later I'd get wiped out. Anything small is easily missed, even when you have day glow clothing and your headlight on. I had too many close calls for my liking, all through people not being aware of my presence. I was never one to take big risks or overtake in dangerous spots. It was just people pulling out of side roads, or turning across my path. I'm sure you're right about the amazing capabilities of the human mind, but distraction is a constant cause of accidents. You simply can't multi-task when you're driving. They've shown this in tests to assess the effect of people using mobile phones while driving, and that's why you're not allowed to do it any more. Taking a phone call doesn't stop you looking ahead, you're still getting all the same inputs, but you're just not giving them the same attention. AI never does that, it's always 100% on task. If you watch the AI presentation, you'll see how they're using persistant data over time from the vector space. It also persists with things that are not moving. In other words, it remembers the child running out of view when it's obscured momentarily by a car, and it also doesn't forget road markings it can't see any morem even when it's stopped. It's a rapidly developing architecture, and they outline the direction that's heading.
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Post by Roger on Aug 24, 2021 19:49:26 GMT
Very true Jo and even today with the worlds most powerful super computers, they aren't even close to the human brain, in fact they are so far behind that they aren't even in the same order of magnitude. We need to consider this when trying to preach that an auto drive car is safer than when driven by a human. As things are today auto driving is so far behind it doesn't even register on the same scale. Ah, but the human brain is optimised for a human, not for driving a car. You don't need the power of a human brain to be much better at driving than one. Take a stealth fighter for example. A human can't visualise, anticipate and react quickly enough to even be able to fly one. I agree that in terms of the number of neurons the human brain has, AI is several orders of magnitude less complex. However, we are very poor at judging what things AI can do and what it can't. It's impossible to code a traditional computer to play the game of GO. Neither man nor machine can deal with the magnitude of the combinations possible with that game. However, AI has now comprehensively beaten the world masters at their own game, not with brute force, but this AI and training. Nobody told the AI how to win, it figured that out on its own. This is exactly the approach being used for self driving. The ability to drive is an intelligent emergent property based on the type of network and the way it's trained. There are also hard coded rules as well, but those are reducing as they too are taught instead. Don't underestimate the power of these systems, it's breathtaking. Sure, they're not as good at the whole problem space as humans, but they are already far better at motorway driving. That's not opinion, that's a fact based on statistics gathered by Tesla from it's enormous fleet. You don't get this sort of lunacy with an AI driver.
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 24, 2021 21:27:53 GMT
I've been an amputee for about 13 years. In that time I've gone from a leg which had a simple damper to regulate the swing speed (I'm an through knee amputee so I have a free swinging false knee, operated like cracking a whip) to a damper which could mechanically detect when I'm walking downstairs, to my current Otto Bock C-Leg; this allows me to walk downstairs the same as a two legged person by regulating the speed at which my body is lowered (which means it has to work out I'm going down stairs), changes damping speed depending on terrain and walking speed, adjusts for slopes (all while being swung back and forth by my hip) and crucially, most life changingly, when I stumble it instantaneously locks solid and virtually catches me. I used to fall over a few times a month; today was the first time I've had a fall, and that's because I rolled my real foot over a brick while putting the bin out. In 13 years I've gone from something not much more advanced than a peg leg with a hinge, to something that has changed my life and is making thousands of decisions a second while I walk without thinking about it. It's nothing short of astonishing, and literally life changing. The only downside? I have to charge it at night.... I can live with that.... My point is, technology is roaring along and we can either be on the crest of the wave or watching...
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Post by Roger on Aug 26, 2021 17:08:23 GMT
Here's the latest in smart charging solutions for Non-Tesla vehicles which makes much better use of the maximum power available at the charging location. This looks like the way that Supermarkets can cheaply supply dozens of charging stations by intelligently sharing a fairly small amount of output power dynamically, based on the maximum current the cars can take, and their current state of charge. Of course, Teslas can use these chargers too, but you will need an adaptor.
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jem
Elder Statesman
Posts: 1,067
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Post by jem on Aug 28, 2021 16:09:04 GMT
So after all this discussion about ice and ev cars, the original question from Small Brother was what small car to buy, so what is the consensus, should the small car be an ice, or an ev, and what would the cost be, which model etc. We have all had our say, so who is going to sum up and which cars will be the winners?
best wishes
Jem
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 28, 2021 16:37:21 GMT
Well I went to look at a car with my son Today as his first, an old Nissan Micra. He is working two jobs to save up for it, and obviously doesn't have much capital, so the answer for us is a sub £1000 Micra. The bottom end of the market doesn't have EVs yet.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2021 17:04:30 GMT
I think the most important consideration when buying a car for a youngster is checking the cost of insurance. Any car will cost them a small fortune, perhaps 3 or 4 times the value of the car itself but it's wise to check. For example is the car completely standard?... if a previous owner has added alloy wheels ( a very popular addition with the young) and this is not pointed out to the insurance company ( the new owner may not be aware) you could find the insurance null and void in an accident. My grandson experienced such problems with a car, when they discovered the alloys the price shot up making it impractical to keep the car
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JonL
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Post by JonL on Aug 28, 2021 20:02:55 GMT
This was entirely standard. We've done a fair bit of digging around with insurance. He could actually insure a slightly newer micra a bit cheaper but rather likes the K11 (apparently they are all the rage among the first car crowd as they are quite lightweight)
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Post by Deleted on Aug 28, 2021 20:40:18 GMT
This was entirely standard. We've done a fair bit of digging around with insurance. He could actually insure a slightly newer micra a bit cheaper but rather likes the K11 (apparently they are all the rage among the first car crowd as they are quite lightweight) That's what I like to hear, youngsters who realise that when it comes to cars...weight is critical, more so than power...
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 29, 2021 11:44:35 GMT
This was entirely standard. We've done a fair bit of digging around with insurance. He could actually insure a slightly newer micra a bit cheaper but rather likes the K11 (apparently they are all the rage among the first car crowd as they are quite lightweight) That's what I like to hear, youngsters who realise that when it comes to cars...weight is critical, more so than power... With 50bhp it all helps! Personally I'd rather it had the same power to weight ratio as a Church.
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