JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 21, 2021 21:32:13 GMT
The auto brake in my Volvo has kicked in once so far; I was behind someone pulling on to a roundabout, they started to pull away, I did the same and almost at the same time checked right again to confirm it was clear. In the time it took me to check right they had slammed on the brakes (for no reason, the roundabout was empty!) And the Volvo jammed mine on preventing a collision. It would have been my fault in the eyes of the law, yet I'm sure they were attempting insurance fraud.
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Post by andyhigham on Aug 21, 2021 21:54:21 GMT
Like it or not EVs are here to stay, in less than 10 years all cars sold will be EVs. Instead of whinging and complaining we should be passing our ideas to the motor manufacturers, that way we may get the cars we want and need. If we keep our gobs shut we will get the cars we are told we want
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 21, 2021 22:00:24 GMT
Agreed. However the average consumer is always going to be afraid of going away from what they know.
"If I had asked my customers what they wanted they would have said a faster horse."
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Post by Roger on Aug 21, 2021 22:46:55 GMT
The investigation is into the fact that Tesla's auto pilot has problems with flashing lights and semi-rig trailers which it fails to see and then ploughs into them with fatal results, hence the investigation. All batteries degrade, EV manufacturers try to elongate battery life by restricting them from charging to 100% to reduce that degradation, usually taking them to 80 or 85% charge. Hard acceleration also reduces battery life, the faster you drive and the harder you brake the battery degrades quicker, that one egates why you would want an EV supercar. This has always been the way batteries are affected. I don't doubt that battery technology will improve but for me when I buy a car, new or secondhand, I want it to give me the same performance and range in yen years as the day I bought it, no EV is going to do this, now or in the future. As I said, it's not up to the current generation of driving assistance software to deal with every situation. You're explicitly told that you're in charge. Clearly it's going to be necessary to deal with these edge cases for full autonomy, and highly desirable for driving assistance. Obviously Tesla are now training their system on these cases now that these accidents have happened. I'd be very suprised if they would do it in 2021. This comes back to the whole business of range. If I gave you an ICE car with a 600 mile tank, which shrank to 500 miles after 500,000 miles, you wouldn't care. This is the equivalent to the end game for batteries. It's simply not going to be an issue. It's only currently on people's mind because we're closer to the limit of range than some users are comfortable withl. It will also be less of an issue when charging is quicker. The reality of ICE cars is that they also become less efficient as they get old. Injectors become clogged or stuck, deposits in the exhaust created back pressure, valves and piston rings leak and the valve timing is compromised by wear. These are the equivalents to battery degradation, because they reduce the range. Does anyone care? No, because the losses are gradual and might only reduce the range by 10% on what is a perfectly adequate range. The same goes for cutting edge EVs. It's another case of double standards I'm afraid.
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Post by Roger on Aug 21, 2021 22:58:02 GMT
I've not driven a car before now that has advanced driving assistance. I'm still a bit sceptical. The first thing for me to master is the concept of "one pedal driving". I came across this first on a BMW i3 I tested, and it's also a feature (you don't have to use it) in my new Fiat. The idea is that the car will slow down and come to a stop when you release the throttle. With practice you can drive mostly one that pedal alone, only using the brake for unexpected stopping. This discourages aggressive slow-down and maximises battery regeneration. The car then holds you at standstill until you want to move off again. At least, that's what's supposed to happen. This seems to be reliable on the flat, or downhill. Sometimes uphill, it somehow fails to catch, and I roll back. Not perfect. It also takes some getting used to - it's the reverse of the usual automatic behaviour where the car creeps unless you hold the brake. This refuses to move at all unless you press the throttle. The second one is, so far, useless. It's a lane centring feature. It's supposed to warn you if you drift towards the edge of your lane, with a gentle nudge on the steering. Fine until you're on a narrow single track road, when it gently encourages you into the path of oncoming cars. The third one is an emergency auto-brake feature. This applies your brakes for you (preceded by a warning) if you're about to hit something. It gets a bit worried if you go for narrow gaps. I've only had it kick in fully once when I raced up to the back of the car in front to clear a space for an oncoming car. I knew I could stop in time, I wasn't overly fussed, when it kicked in to assist. An acquaintance was saved from reversing his Skoda into another car that he'd not seen by a similar system. So, these are "exceptions to the rule" situations. But it would be easy to drive in environments where there were fewer exceptions, and get lulled into thinking that the car was always going to behave itself. Wilf I too haven't driven one of these clever driving assistance systems. However, it's all part of the learning experience. I remember the first time I used Cruise Control it felt like the car was taking over and I was losing control. However, it didn't take long to figure out what it feels like and when it's appropriate to use it. It will be just the same with Lane Assistance that many cars have now. What you don't do is open a magazine and put your feet up. Tesla FSD is very much a work in progress. It's interesting to watch the Beta test videos that come out from users who have just downloaded the latest release. If you watch them, you'll soon realise that this is NOT full autonomy, but it's heading down that path at a rapid pace. Every intervention on the system by the driver is logged and fed back to Tesla so they can see what the issues are. You rightly point out that these systems are already saving crashes and hence lives. What the safety investigations need to study is how many accidents are averted compared to those the systems are involved in. That's a much better metric for deciding how useful they are. Tesla recently showcased three examples. One case would have put the car in a lake, but the car could see that there was no path ahead when the driver floored the accelerator. As Elon says, it's about the 'march of nines'. You can get it 99%, then 99.9% etc, and each nine takes a lot of development to achieve.
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Post by jon38r80 on Aug 22, 2021 12:45:31 GMT
I am happy to use cruise control on a road where the grades have been designed properly and there isnt too much traffic ( sadly in the UK there isnt too much of that except some of the more lightly used motor ways and A roads. Most roads werent designed and a lot are bad compromises caused by space and existing ground level restrictions. its easily overidden anyway by a touch on the brake or accelerator.
I have a mini which has some function to brake the car if it thinks you are too close to the car in front. Its extremely annoying as it is simple and seems to take little or no accouint of the road or traffic conditiuons so its turned off. like all electronic wizardry its only as good as the programmer and how much got spent on the equipment itself and the complexity of its sensory inpout. Im not inclined to put my life in the metaphorical hands of a piece of machinery!
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Post by Roger on Aug 22, 2021 15:28:34 GMT
I am happy to use cruise control on a road where the grades have been designed properly and there isnt too much traffic ( sadly in the UK there isnt too much of that except some of the more lightly used motor ways and A roads. Most roads werent designed and a lot are bad compromises caused by space and existing ground level restrictions. its easily overidden anyway by a touch on the brake or accelerator. I have a mini which has some function to brake the car if it thinks you are too close to the car in front. Its extremely annoying as it is simple and seems to take little or no accouint of the road or traffic conditiuons so its turned off. like all electronic wizardry its only as good as the programmer and how much got spent on the equipment itself and the complexity of its sensory inpout. Im not inclined to put my life in the metaphorical hands of a piece of machinery! Crude control systems have serious problems when the simple situation they were designed for changes. Radar for telling the distance to the car ahead is a case in point. Tesla showed exactly what the issues are with this in a recent presentation. They showed a representation of the distance the system thought various object were based on the 8 vision cameras and the Radar. The Radar kept dropping out and locking back in, while the vision system provided a smooth output. The accident that Pete referred to, where the car hit a trailer at right angles to the road was another case just like this. When you have two systems that disagree, which do you believe? This is why Tesla have ditched Radar altogether, because it was holding back development. It's a crude tool with a very low resolution. The only advantage Radar has is that it can see when vision can't. We don't have Radar eyes, yet we cope perfectly well, reducing speed as visibilty becomes worse. That's how you want a self driving system to work anyway. Nobody would be happy trusting a system that was happy to plough on through fog at 70mph! I'm afraid you already do put your life into the hands of a piece of machinery, every time you drive. Whether it's the brakes, steering or the ECU that could potentially cut all power in an instant. We're all quite happy to fly in a jet with autopilot on, in fact I think we'd be worried about a pilot hand flying a jet for 8 hours when it's dead boring. Inattention and dropping off to sleep are common causes of road accidents. AI systems never do that. The same will surely happen in the end when it comes to long motorway journeys. You'll be in much safer hands trusting the AI. It's also worth noting that Tesla have a dual redundant system running the AI. At the moment, it's not a safety critical application because it's just a driver assistance system, where the driver is responsible. This is how they can test new releases in the wild. They run the new release in shadow mode, and flag the differences for analysis in the factory.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2021 15:43:26 GMT
I was reading today that Afghanistan has the world's largest Lithium reserves and the US just walked away from it??? I wonder what that will do to battery production/cost? I was also watching the great BBC Four program earlier this week 'Earth from Space' and they were talking about how the world is being destroyed by man and showing examples that can be seen from space. Most we are used too but one that stood out was these massive pools of liquid, liquid which turns out to be part of the lithium processing required for EV batteries covering large areas of land, not very good for the world at all.
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Post by Roger on Aug 22, 2021 16:14:47 GMT
I was reading today that Afghanistan has the world's largest Lithium reserves and the US just walked away from it??? I wonder what that will do to battery production/cost? I was also watching the great BBC Four program earlier this week 'Earth from Space' and they were talking about how the world is being destroyed by man and showing examples that can be seen from space. Most we are used too but one that stood out was these massive pools of liquid, liquid which turns out to be part of the lithium processing required for EV batteries covering large areas of land, not very good for the world at all. Lithium isn't that rare, and it's present in large quantities in the US. Tesla have purchased 10,000 acres in Nevada with a view to sourcing their locally required Lithium from that. They've also patented novel extraction processes to do it more efficiently and using less water than current techniques. You have to bear in mind that Lithium mining and extraction has been limited to relatively low volumes compared to what's required for EVs. This is why it's receiving much needed investment to do it efficiently and without the issues you mention. As with everything EVs, it's a rapidly changing picture, and you have to keep your eye on the ball to know what's going on. There's an interesting channel called 'The limiting factor' which dives very deep into issues like this. It's well worth a look if you want to stay current. The problem with mainstream media is that they are lazy, going for the quick headline and easy story with the minimum of effort. They love to pick up on half a story and then run with it, without looking much deeper. I guess it's all part of the continuing process of dumbing everything down.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 22, 2021 16:32:06 GMT
I wouldn't call a BBC doc mainstream media, they say it how it is, but if you want articles from mainstream media describing what they call 'the curse of white oil', well there are plenty of examples out there. BTW, I don't need to read everything to 'stay current' and I have zero interest in anything from Musk as he has zero interest in anything but himself. That's what suffering from Asperger's syndrome does for people. I worked for years next to one, he was the biggest POS I have ever met, with absolute zero socialising skills, a capital bully to the young who were just getting started in film/tv. This is probably why Musk closed down his PR department, he just doesn't care which is pretty evident with some of the crap that comes out of his mouth on other subjects where he should zip it.
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Post by simplyloco on Aug 22, 2021 16:57:29 GMT
I wouldn't call a BBC doc mainstream media, they say it how it is, but if you want articles from mainstream media describing what they call 'the curse of white oil', well there are plenty of examples out there. BTW, I don't need to read everything to 'stay current' and I have zero interest in anything from Musk as he has zero interest in anything but himself. That's what suffering from Asperger's syndrome does for people. I worked for years next to one, he was the biggest POS I have ever met, with absolute zero socialising skills, a capital bully to the young who were just getting started in film/tv. This is probably why Musk closed down his PR department, he just doesn't care which is pretty evident with some of the crap that comes out of his mouth on other subjects where he should zip it. Come on Pete, don't be so shy, let it out, don't hold back, you know you can do it!
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Post by Roger on Aug 22, 2021 17:03:19 GMT
I wouldn't call a BBC doc mainstream media, they say it how it is, but if you want articles from mainstream media describing what they call 'the curse of white oil', well there are plenty of examples out there. BTW, I don't need to read everything to 'stay current' and I have zero interest in anything from Musk as he has zero interest in anything but himself. That's what suffering from Asperger's syndrome does for people. I worked for years next to one, he was the biggest POS I have ever met, with absolute zero socialising skills, a capital bully to the young who were just getting started in film/tv. This is probably why Musk closed down his PR department, he just doesn't care which is pretty evident with some of the crap that comes out of his mouth on other subjects where he should zip it. I'm afraid we'll have to agree to disagree about Elon Musk. He's a maverick, and that upsets people who love the status quo. The media have a love hate relationship with him, but frankly he doesn't care. That's not a fault. He's focused on important goals that will have a significant impact on the survival of humanity. Love him or loath him, he's changing the world. Without him, mankind would have carried on burning fossil fuels in Cars and Trucks, and to hell with the consequences. Big oil and complacent car makers lead us sleepwalking into disaster, with no inclination to change. His actions will have a bigger impact on climate change than any other person alive. Sure, there will be bumps in the road, with undesirable impacts that have to be addressed. However, that's infinitely preferable to waking up to yet another day where it's 45C in the shade in the UK. That's where we're headed without the likes of him trying to do something about it. I think it's a bit unfair to judge Musk on your experience of one other person who had Aspergers. It manifests itself in many different ways. If you have a huge vision, you don't have too much time for niceties. You have to cut to the chase, make decisions and make sure they count. If someone stands in the way of the goal, they'll become collateral damage. If that makes him seem arrogant or lacking in social skills, so be it. You can't get things done by being mister soft nice guy all the time. Sometimes you need the stick as well as the carrot. How much do you or I achieve in one day? Not much when you compare us with him. Frankly, I think you ought to give the guy a bit more credit. What he's getting his teams to achieve is putting everyone else in the shade. Long may it continue, we need more people like him.
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Post by jon38r80 on Aug 22, 2021 17:51:21 GMT
Roger, you are quite right that one puts ones life in the hands of a machine every time you drive but at least you control that machine, not some piece of electronic wizardry that is controlled by software someone else wrote to run on a machine someone else designed and built. My experience of software is that it is generaly poorly written these days , full of bugs and not thoroughly tested before allowing people who have no idea how it works to use it. Freequently it is the unsuspecting user who ends up doing the testing requiring the frequent updating with 'bug fixes'
You may be happy to fly, even when a plane is on autopilot. Im not I hate flying and unfortunately had to do a lot of it when I was working. Im not a good passenger.
The recent debacle over the auto pilot for the latest Boeing only reinforced my suspicions about both software and hardware development and testing. When I brirfly wrote software we tried to break the user interface before we would let anyone use it. I got bored as a system analyst/programmer after about three years because the testing phase took about 95% of my time, the fun part defining a requirement, designing and writing the software to solve the problem was too short to hold my interest.
You are an ardent supporter of the rise of the EV. I am sure that they will eventualy take over however at the current state of development, range , cost etc you must allow that there are many that do not share your views at present and will not be readily pursuaded. I am afraid too many of us grew up as automotive tinkerers and actualy enjoy driving IC powered cars just because we always have
A bit like our difference of opinion about the relevant uses of silver and soft solder. Each to their own.
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 22, 2021 18:01:22 GMT
I suspect this is an argument between an unstoppable force and an immovable object. I don't imagine either one of you two will suddenly burst out "Great Scott! I've been wrong all along!".
😀
All meant with the fondest respect for all those chipping in to the debate.
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Post by Roger on Aug 22, 2021 19:22:40 GMT
Roger, you are quite right that one puts ones life in the hands of a machine every time you drive but at least you control that machine, not some piece of electronic wizardry that is controlled by software someone else wrote to run on a machine someone else designed and built. My experience of software is that it is generaly poorly written these days , full of bugs and not thoroughly tested before allowing people who have no idea how it works to use it. Freequently it is the unsuspecting user who ends up doing the testing requiring the frequent updating with 'bug fixes' You may be happy to fly, even when a plane is on autopilot. Im not I hate flying and unfortunately had to do a lot of it when I was working. Im not a good passenger. The recent debacle over the auto pilot for the latest Boeing only reinforced my suspicions about both software and hardware development and testing. When I brirfly wrote software we tried to break the user interface before we would let anyone use it. I got bored as a system analyst/programmer after about three years because the testing phase took about 95% of my time, the fun part defining a requirement, designing and writing the software to solve the problem was too short to hold my interest. You are an ardent supporter of the rise of the EV. I am sure that they will eventualy take over however at the current state of development, range , cost etc you must allow that there are many that do not share your views at present and will not be readily pursuaded. I am afraid too many of us grew up as automotive tinkerers and actualy enjoy driving IC powered cars just because we always have A bit like our difference of opinion about the relevant uses of silver and soft solder. Each to their own. I've written a lot of software over the past 40 years, 15 years of it on one CNC control from start to finish. It must be a nightmare to control a large project if you have too many people involved. These are the issues that Boeing and Arianne experience. I would never collaborate with anyone, I'd rather pass on the job. Most of what I do is embedded applications, and I enjoy it most of the time. I certainly wouldn't want to do it as a full time job. If you watch the Tesla AI day presentation, it would appear that it's a pretty small team they have. They also split it down into pretty rigid areas, although they obviously coordinate the product as a whole. I believe that these people get worked really hard, with long days and absurdly ambitious deadlines. Elon says that one person working 80 hours a week achieves much more than two people working 40 hours. I think he's right, I just don't want to be that person! When I was young and energetic, it would have been different. As it happens, I think it's much easier to make a robust and reliable software solution with AI than it is with tons of code. Tesla are gradually reducing the amount of hand written code in favour of neural nets. Nets are really simple compared to coded solutions. Sure they have vast resources and millions of nodes, but the intelligence is an emerging behaviour of the training, you're not coding anything for that. Yes, you can have inadequate training that results in Emergency Vehicles with flashing lights not being correctly recognised. I suppose you could think of them as bugs, but they're more akin to ignorance than that. These things are easily fixed when you know what training data is required. That's where the simulated data is of enormous value. You can create vast numbers of photorealistic scenes with any number and variety of Emergency vehicles you like. The great thing about this is that you know what every object is in the scene, so it's self labelling. I used to enjoy tinkering with motorbikes and cars, but without an indoor lift where it's warm, I can't be doing with it. I do it because I'd rather know it's done properly and because they charge such outrageous prices. I've even had the garage decline to quote because it was too difficult, only to google it and then easily do it myself. Bugs are always going to be present
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Post by Jo on Aug 22, 2021 20:00:24 GMT
The reality of ICE cars is that they also become less efficient as they get old. Injectors become clogged or stuck, deposits in the exhaust created back pressure, valves and piston rings leak and the valve timing is compromised by wear. These are the equivalents to battery degradation, because they reduce the range. Does anyone care? No, because the losses are gradual and might only reduce the range by 10% on what is a perfectly adequate range. The same goes for cutting edge EVs. It's another case of double standards I'm afraid. My 17 year old smelly Diesel 206SW is still giving the same 56mpg after 17 years The reason I want an EV is so I can combine it with my solar Array with an active household power management system between the two. But as I mentioned earlier the technology is not there yet and I want a SMALL estate car not one of these massive heavy lumps that are determined to make at the moment. Jo
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Post by Roger on Aug 22, 2021 22:02:00 GMT
The reality of ICE cars is that they also become less efficient as they get old. Injectors become clogged or stuck, deposits in the exhaust created back pressure, valves and piston rings leak and the valve timing is compromised by wear. These are the equivalents to battery degradation, because they reduce the range. Does anyone care? No, because the losses are gradual and might only reduce the range by 10% on what is a perfectly adequate range. The same goes for cutting edge EVs. It's another case of double standards I'm afraid. My 17 year old smelly Diesel 206SW is still giving the same 56mpg after 17 years The reason I want an EV is so I can combine it with my solar Array with an active household power management system between the two. But as I mentioned earlier the technology is not there yet and I want a SMALL estate car not one of these massive heavy lumps that are determined to make at the moment. Jo Most engines do hold up pretty well until they croak. If you search YouTube though, you'll find quite a lot of investigations where they put old cars on dynomometers and show how much power they've lost over time. It varies a lot as you can imagine. I too am waiting for a smaller more affordable EV. My daily drive is a Smart Car, and it's plenty big enough and capable enough to go anywhere. It was also very cheap and costs very little to run. On purely practical grounds, I can't justify replacing it with anything, but it's not about that. Hopefully one day I'll be a Granddad, and then extra seats would come in handy. For me it's an aspriational purchase. The quietness, effortless power and technology are a big draw because I've been involved in computers and tech all my life. I can't afford to be at the cutting edge, and frankly I can't be doing with early adopter pains. Now the infrastructure is rolling out apace, by the time I can get what I want, it should be dead easy to charge anywhere if I'm out and about far from home. It's already pretty good, but it's only going to get better. Tesla have promised an 'affordable car' at $25,000 so I'll wait and see what they come up with. They're the brand leader by a big margin, and that's what I'm after. Even if I don't have the Full Self Driving which is going to be expensive, it will still have the best Autopilot software, and that's all I need really. I can't wait to get my hands on one. My roof has three large water heater panels, so that won't be available for charging. I could put a couple on the garage roof though. We'll see.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2021 19:31:22 GMT
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JonL
Elder Statesman
WWSME (Wiltshire)
Posts: 2,912
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Post by JonL on Aug 23, 2021 19:50:00 GMT
I bet if you quantified it per capita people kill more than self driving systems.
You only have to drive a few miles on Dorset roads before you start wishing that driving was a task removed from the general public and handed over to technology...
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Post by Deleted on Aug 23, 2021 19:54:35 GMT
You only have to drive a few miles on Dorset roads before you start wishing that driving was a task removed from the general public and handed over to technology... Not I Jon, not I....🤣🤣
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